Current actions that are unlikely to create peace
Here are the reasons I believe Einstein’s solution, popularizing a newer way of thinking, is the one most likely to succeed:
The actions we currently take to prevent catastrophe, such as economic sanctionsand threats of war, are necessary to postpone the use of weapons with ultimate destructive power (WUD). However, they offer little hope to prevent their use. Deterrence has been our preferred means to warn others that any perpetrator of aggression will suffer painful consequences. An important flaw in deterrence is that multiple tribes build up destructive weapons so that they can threaten others. More weapons and defense spending is a waste of constructive resources. The possibility of the unleashing of weapons by a mechanical error or the mistaken judgment of a leader increases as more tribes possess WUDs.
Diplomacy must continue,but success will be limited as long as the prevalent way most diplomats think remains biased to secure benefits for their own tribe and prevail as the “winner.” The difficulties encountered in the League of Nations, the United Nations, and other major negotiating efforts teach us a lesson. Negotiating peace will only work when its members apply common sense thinking instead of the presently dominant survival of the fittest mentality and either/or two-category thinking.
Attempts to limit proliferation of WUDs and secure fissionable materials arefar from perfect. The predicted use of biological weapons is based on the easy availability of raw materials and the ability to create such weapons undetected.
The Peace Corps and related organizations that provide help to distressed countries, sharing projects of common interest, and related activities are powerful peace advocates, but they are likely too little and too late to prevent the imminent catastrophe.
This letter has introduced the first essential concept to create world peace – recognizing the problem. The next letter will explain Einstein’s most certain solution among alternatives.